Does gender affect environmentally virtuous behaviour? Evidence from selective waste collection.

This research analyses the issue, unexplored to date, of the causal relationship between women politicians and selective waste collection. Differing attitudes towards environmental issues between men and women may affect waste management at the municipal level, so an increase in women's political representation can be expected to enhance the effectiveness of selective waste collection. The analysis tests for this in Italy, exploiting a gender quota measure (Law 215/2012) as an exogenous shock to the percentage of female municipal councilors. Difference-in-differences instrumental variable analysis finds that an increase of one standard deviation in the percentage of female councilors increases the percentage of selective waste collection by 2.18 percentage points and the total tonnage of selective waste by 447.86. At the same time it reduces the amount of non-selective waste collection by 491.22 tonnes. The study comprises a number of sensitivity analyses for different model specifications, different definitions of dependent variables, different size of municipalities and different geographical areas.

The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19.

Soon after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the French government decided to still hold the first round of the 2020 municipal elections as scheduled on March 15. What was the impact of these elections on the spread of COVID-19 in France? Answering this question leads to intricate econometric issues as omitted variables may drive both epidemiological dynamics and electoral turnout, and as a national lockdown was imposed at almost the same time as the elections. In order to disentangle the effect of the elections from that of confounding factors, we first predict each department's epidemiological dynamics using information up to the election. We then take advantage of differences in electoral turnout across departments to identify the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations. We report a detrimental effect of the first round of the election on hospitalizations in locations that were already at relatively advanced stages of the epidemic. Estimates suggest that the elections accounted for at least 3,000 hospitalizations, or 11% of all hospitalizations by the end of March. Given the sizable health cost of holding elections during an epidemic, promoting ways of voting that reduce exposure to COVID-19 is key until the pandemic shows signs of abating.

Closest to the People? Incumbency Advantage and the Personal Vote in Non-Partisan Elections.

Do incumbents dominate non-partisan elections because of an especially large personal vote? This question has important implications for understanding the causes of incumbent success and the benefits or drawbacks of non-partisan elections. This paper uses a natural experiment, combined with three original datasets, to estimate the size, persistence, and consequences of the personal vote in a large non-partisan city election. We first use individual-level survey data to show that individuals assigned quasi-randomly to a new incumbent are substantially less likely to support the incumbent. We use a second survey, one year later, to demonstrate the persistence of this effect. Finally, we use historical election results to simulate the electoral consequences of the personal vote; we find that the personal vote is sufficiently large to affect one in four incumbent races. We conclude that the personal vote, while large and important, is not sufficient to explain incumbent dominance in non-partisan contests.

Does holding elections during a Covid-19 pandemic put the lives of politicians at risk?

We estimate the impact of French town hall elections held in mid-March 2020 on the mortality of 163,000 male candidates aged above 60. Their excess mortality during March and April was similar to the general population. We compare candidates in cities with two candidate lists to those in cities with only one list, as elections are more intense in contacts in the former group. We also use a regression discontinuity design and investigate mortality in 2020 depending on how candidates fared in the 2014 election. We cannot detect any causal effect of active participation in the 2020 elections on mortality.

Atributos e chances de sucesso eleitoral de prefeitos no brasil / Atributos y posibilidades de éxito electoral de alcaldes en brasil / Attributes and chances of electoral success of mayors in brazil

Resumo Estudo sobre as chances de sucesso eleitoral do Poder Executivo local com base na evolução do perfil de candidatos e eleitos. Foram analisados os resultados das eleições municipais ocorridas em 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 e 2016 segundo sexo, idade, escolaridade e ocupação, que revelassem fatores de influência para o perfil dos prefeitos vitoriosos. A metodologia envolveu pesquisa documental e bibliográfica. Tendo como base teoria de campo e capital político de Bourdieu (2011), foram analisados dados disponibilizados pelo Tribunal Superior Eleitoral mediante teste do qui-quadrado e de regressão logística. Os resultados indicaram o sexo e a ocupação declarada como fatores de influência determinantes no perfil dos eleitos. Observou-se diminuição das chances de sucesso eleitoral de candidatos do sexo masculino ou oriundos de carreira política nas eleições ocorridas em 2012 e em 2016.

Resumen El artículo estudia las posibilidades de éxito electoral del Poder Ejecutivo local basado en la evolución del perfil de candidatos y elegidos. Se analizaron los resultados de las elecciones municipales ocurridas en 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 y 2016 según sexo, edad, escolaridad y ocupación que revelasen factores de influencia para el perfil de los alcaldes victoriosos. La metodología incluyó investigación documental y bibliográfica. Con base en la teoría de campo y capital político de Bourdieu (2011), se analizaron datos proporcionados por el Tribunal Superior Electoral mediante la prueba de chi-cuadrado y de regresión logística. Los resultados indicaron el sexo y la ocupación declarada como factores de influencia determinantes en el perfil de los elegidos. Se observó una disminución de las posibilidades de éxito electoral de candidatos del sexo masculino u oriundos de carreras políticas en las elecciones ocurridas en 2012 y 2016.

Abstract This article shows the chances of electoral success for local Executive Branch based on the profile of candidates and elected candidates. The results of the municipal elections of 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 were analyzed concentrating on the characteristics sex, age, schooling, and occupation in order to observe the influence of these characteristics in the profile of the elected mayors in the last five elections. The methodology involved documentary and bibliographic research. Data available from the Supreme Electoral Court were analyzed using the chi-square test and logistic regression. The analysis considered Bourdieu's theory of field and political capital (2011). The results show evidence that the candidate's sex and occupation are decisive influencing factors, with a decrease in chances of electoral success for male candidates or candidates of a political career in the elections of 2012 and 2016.

Influência das eleições municipaisde 2000 na implementação do programa de saúde da família em Minas Gerais (relatório de pesquisa)

O Programa de Saúde da Família (PSF)representa uma proposta de reorganização e implementação do nível de atenção básica do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), operacionalizado pelo nível municipal e subsidiado pelos níveis federal e estadual. A implantação e o desenvolvimento do Programa partem de uma decisão política do gestor municipal que, no Brasil, é submetido às eleições a cada quatro anos. Este trabalho pretende apresentar eventuais correlações entre as eleições municipais, com a mudança ou não dos gestores, e a implementação do PSF.

This research comprehends two phases. The first one analyses how municipal elections for mayors, occurred in October 2000, possibly affected the development of the “Family Health Program” in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The authors compared the number of “Family Health Teams” working in the previous municipal administration, finished in December 2000, and the number of teams working in December 2001, during the current administration. In the second phase of this research, the authors will try to describe and explain how the mayors’ opinion about the Program may have changed.